Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: State of Gujarat, India

by Imtiyaz A. Parvez, Anastasia Nekrasova and Vladimir Kossobokov

The Gujarat state of India is one of the most seismically active intercontinental regions of the world. Historically, it has experienced many damaging earthquakes including the devastating 1819 Rann of Kachchh and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The effect of the later one is grossly underestimated by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP). To assess a more adequate earthquake hazard for the state of Gujarat, we apply Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence relation taking into account naturally fractal distribution of earthquake loci. USLE has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of the territory considered and, therefore, may differ dramatically from the actual one when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. of a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. We cross-compare the seismic hazard maps compiled for the same standard regular grid 0.2° × 0.2° (1) in terms of design ground acceleration based on the neo-deterministic approach, (2) in terms of probabilistic exceedance of peak ground acceleration by GSHAP, and (3) the one resulted from the USLE application. Finally, we present the maps of seismic risks for the state of Gujarat integrating the obtained seismic hazard, population density based on India’s Census 2011 data, and a few model assumptions of vulnerability.


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