Articles

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

by Sajani Surendran, Sulochana Gadgil, P A Francis and M Rajeevan

 

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July–September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August–September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

 

Source: http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/094004

 

Citation: Sajani Surendran, Sulochana Gadgil, P A Francis and M Rajeevan (2015), Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 094004. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094004

You are here: Home

Working Hours

Open Monday - Friday, 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM IST

  This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

  Fax: +91-80-2522-0392

  Call: +91-80-2505 1920, 2505 1921