Modelling for Science, for a better future - some recent outcomes
An evaluation strategy of skill of high-resolution rainfall forecast for specific agricultural applications
by V. Rakesh and Prashant Goswami
A strategy for validation of rainfall forecasts for specific agricultural applications is presented. The focus is mainly on the design of specific forecast advisories that are risk-free and useful in spite of their inherent errors. The strategy works for these specific applications because the forecast advisories are based on when NOT to irrigate or apply fertilizer/pesticide because rain is predicted (risk-free because wrong forecast only delays irrigation/application of fertilizer/pesticide within tolerance). Thus, unlike in conventional forecast evaluation, a forecast is considered as valid if the forecasted rain (or no rain) is correct for the day of the forecast (D0C) or the next day or the day after (designated D1C and D2C, respectively), as the farmer can afford to postpone the field application for a couple of days beyond the scheduled date. The methodology has been evaluated for rainfall forecasts over Karnataka (a state in southwest India with nearly 56% of the workforce engaged in agriculture). Here, forecast validation against rain gauge observations is presented at comparable resolutions for the southwest (June to September) and the northeast (October to December) monsoon seasons during 2011–2014. Analyses demonstrate that forecasts over several areas which may appear to be less reliable based on conventional evaluation (D0C) are found to have useful skill for the specific agro-applications as evident from evaluation based on D1C and D2C criteria. Our analysis shows that the evaluation strategy presented is effective during the non-rainy (January–May) season also. It is pointed out that such an approach can help to meet the challenges in designing and implementing best practices in agriculture by combining immediate gains for the end users with long-term sustainability.
Reflection and Refraction of Attenuated Waves at the Interface Between Cracked Poroelastic Medium and Porous Solid Saturated with Two Immiscible Fluids
by Sushant Shekhar and Imtiyaz A. Parvez
The present study is mainly focused on understanding the effect of cracks on the energy share of an incident wave at the interface between a cracked poroelastic solid containing single fluid and a porous solid containing two immiscible viscous fluids. We assume that both the media are dissipative due to presence of viscosity in pore fluids. The analysis is based on Snell’s law for the reflection and refraction of an incident wave from the common boundary of these two media. The proposed model is solved for the propagation of harmonic plane waves with the help of the Helmholtz technique. After solving the elastodynamical equations, we find three attenuated reflected waves and four attenuated refracted waves. The propagation of an attenuated wave in the respective dissipative medium defined as an inhomogeneous propagation of a wave, is represented through the propagation and the attenuation directions. These inhomogeneous waves propagate through the cracked poroelastic solid and are incident at a point on the interface. The phase velocities and attenuation coefficients are calculated for the propagation of each inhomogeneous wave. The expressions of reflection and refraction coefficients and energy share of each of the reflected and refracted waves for a given incident wave are obtained in closed form and computed numerically in the present study. Numerical examples are considered for the partition of incident energy in which we have studied the presence and absence of cracks in poroelastic solid with single fluid, effect of crack density, saturation parameter and Poisson’s ratio for the cracked poroelastic solid.
Precipitation-aerosol relationship over the Indian region during drought and excess summer monsoon years
by Sajani Surendran, Kavirajan Rajendran and V B Arya
This study investigates the aerosols-rainfall interaction during Indian summer monsoon and characterizes their difference in drought and excess summer monsoon years, based on MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm. AOD has been estimated using Level-2 MODIS Terra Data Version 6. AOD in drought years is found to be higher over India compared to excess monsoon years. The total effect of aerosols causes reduction of summer rainfall but with distinct differences in their impact during strong and weak summer monsoon years, due to the changes in clouds, radiation, large-scale circulation, and convection. Aerosol and cloud characteristics exhibit strong association to rainfall variability in interannual time scales. Variability in cloud effective radius and cloud optical thickness is found to be consistent with aerosol effect.
Citation: Sajani Surendran, Kavirajan Rajendran and V B Arya (2016), Precipitation-aerosol relationship over the Indian region during drought and excess summer monsoon years ", Proc. SPIE, 98820Q (May 3); doi:10.1117/12.2229447; http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2229447
- Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections
- Neo-deterministic Definition of Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Scenarios for the Territory of Gujarat (India)
- Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Peninsular India
- An Assessment of Optimality of Observations in High-resolution Weather Forecasting
- Impact of data assimilation on high-resolution rainfall forecasts: A spatial, seasonal, and category analysis