Sustainability and adaptation are primarily local issues. In the context of climate change, this calls for quantitative assessment of climate change at a local level; it is well known that the general global warming in reality has wide geographical variations with both local cooling and warming. With respect to India, the following issues need urgent attention:
- 1. Water sustainability: Changing hydrological cycle, and recession of the glaciers along with increasing withdrawal of ground water is going to make water sustainability a serious issue.
- 2.Agricultural sustainability: reduction in spatial and temporal extents of the monsoon (Ramesh and Goswami, 2007), increasing aridification (Goswami and Ramesh 2008) and changing land use patterns make agricultural sustainability an uncertain quantity for future.
- 3.Eco-sustainability: Change of precipitation patterns, like reduction in the number of rainy days (Goswami and Ramesh 2008) can make certain flora and fauna as well as crops unviable even if the overall rainfall does not change.
- 4.Energy sustainability: Reduction of rainfall over certain (orographic) regions can have adverse effects on generation of hydro-electric power, even if the overall rainfall does not change.
- 5.Industrial sustainability: Economic and industrial zones like coasts and urban areas are likely to be increasingly more vulnerable to extreme weather events like tropical cyclone and episodes of heavy rainfall. An identification of projected threat and mitigation measures (for example, in terms of revised wind load) is necessary.
It is needless to emphasize that once even one of these critical sectors is affected, there will be a cascading effect on other spheres. There is, however, little effort in the country at present to address these issues in a comprehensive manner. The proposed project aims to harness the multi-disciplinary expertise available at CSIR to fill this critical gap. The project will adopt and use most advanced climate models calibrated to simulate regional climate with these local variations in a global environment.
Sustainability and adaptation are primarily local issues, and need to be based on detail and accurate knowledge of local conditions. In the context of climate change, this calls for quantitative assessment of climate change at a local level; it is well known that the general global warming in reality has wide geographical variations and exhibit both local cooling and warming.
One of the most critical, and most challenging, problems is the delineation of natural climate variability from the anthropogenic climate change. While the latter may be controlled through mitigation measures, the former, as the intrinsic variability of a complex, multi-scale thermo-mechanical system, is practically beyond control (except adaptation). This issue is critical to develop and assess effective mitigation policies, and will be addressed through a combination of simulations and observations.
Integrated Analysis for Impact, Mitigation and Sustainability (IAIMS):-
- Approach and Methodology